2026 Market Outlook

Written By Antoinette Mullins
2026 Market Outlook

What Global Events Mean for Australian Investors

Introduction

After several strong years for investment markets, 2026 is shaping up to be a year of more moderate and uneven returns. Global events — particularly in the US and key commodity markets — continue to influence how Australian shares, super funds and property perform.

While headlines can feel unsettling at times, it’s important to separate noise from long-term trends. Below, we break down the key themes for 2026 in simple terms and explain what they may mean for Australian investors.

1. What’s the overall outlook for 2026?

Investment markets are expected to continue growing in 2026, but at a slower and less predictable pace than recent years.

After strong gains in global and Australian shares, markets are no longer “cheap”. This doesn’t mean a crash is expected — but it does mean returns may be more modest, with periods of volatility along the way.

For diversified investors (such as those in balanced or growth super funds), long-term returns are still expected to be positive. However, investors should be prepared for short-term ups and downs rather than a smooth ride.

What this means for you:

Volatility is normal. Staying invested and diversified remains more important than trying to time markets.

2. Interest rates, inflation and central banks

Interest rates remain a key driver of markets.

In Australia, inflation has come down from its peak but is still being closely watched by the Reserve Bank. As a result, interest rates are expected to stay relatively steady for now rather than falling quickly.

In the US, interest rates have already been cut, which has helped support global share markets. However, any resurgence in inflation or policy changes could affect future decisions.

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What this means for you:

Stable interest rates tend to support shares and property over time, but high inflation can still impact living costs and investment returns.

3. Global politics and market uncertainty

Global politics continues to influence markets more than usual.

Tensions in regions such as Ukraine and the Middle East, combined with uncertainty around US trade and foreign policy, can cause short-term market swings. These events often push investors towards “safe-haven” assets like gold.

History shows that while geopolitical events can create volatility, markets often recover once uncertainty eases — especially when company profits and economic growth remain solid.

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What this means for you:

Short-term market moves driven by headlines don’t usually change long-term investment outcomes.

4. The US, technology and global growth

The US remains the world’s largest share market, and US technology companies continue to play a major role in global returns.

Strong earnings from technology and AI-related companies have supported US markets, which in turn affects Australian super funds with global share exposure.

At the same time, a weaker US dollar has helped international returns for Australian investors when measured in Australian dollars.

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What this means for you:

Global diversification matters. Australian super funds benefit from exposure beyond the local market.

5. Resources, commodities and the Australian share market

Resources have played a big role in Australian share market performance over the past year.

Commodity prices — including iron ore, oil and metals — remain sensitive to global growth expectations and geopolitical risks. Rising oil prices, for example, can support energy stocks, while falling iron ore prices can weigh on mining shares.

The Australian dollar also matters. A stronger dollar can reduce export competitiveness, while a weaker dollar can boost earnings for exporters and international investments.

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What this means for you:

Australian shares are closely tied to global demand and commodity prices, which is why diversification within super and investment portfolios is so important.

6. What investors should keep in mind for 2026

As we move through 2026, a few timeless investment principles remain key:

  • Markets don’t move in straight lines

  • Short-term volatility is normal and expected

  • Global events influence returns, but rarely derail long-term outcomes

  • A well-diversified portfolio is designed to weather uncertainty

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Why is this important?

Rather than reacting to headlines, successful investors focus on long-term strategy, appropriate asset allocation, and staying invested through market cycles.

Sources & further reading

This article draws on insights and commentary from AMP’s investment team:

Antoinette Mullins
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